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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."