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Mounting concerns have emerged over the possibility of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a heated verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his country's sea access was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Relations between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it landlocked.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the wish to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "error" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Amid ongoing challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on social media from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for sea access describing it as "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a approach of retaking former lands.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Border

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has shown training completions of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the military, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Previous Roots of the Dispute

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British administration before turning into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s the ruler ended this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Autonomy was then approved by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, leading to conflict in 1998.

Though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was concluded – a decision that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then allies in the country's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet relations have subsequently deteriorated again.