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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.