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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans improving collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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